cy ([info]cychan) wrote,
@ 2008-08-12 19:58:00
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Prius depreciation revisted

Almost two years ago, I posted about how our Prius had been holding its value exceedingly well. Based on the resale value at 16 months old, I projected the expected depreciation over three years to be no greater than 13.6% as compared to 45% for the average vehicle in the US.

With gas prices so high, demand for the Prius is astronomical -- much higher than Toyota can meet. This in turn has led to very high resale values of used Priuses. After a little over three years, our car has depreciated only 7.7% 7.2%. This value reflects a below average number of miles, so correcting for that (assuming the average person drives 15k miles/yr), it would have depreciated 11.4% instead.

A lot of folks like to say that it takes years to make up the hybrid premium in gas savings. It's not hard to see that Prius owners made out like bandits (whether out of "foresight" or just plain blind luck) in terms of reduced depreciation alone. Whether this astoundingly low rate of depreciation will hold up for the next several years remains to be seen, but either way I'm sure the price of gas will be a large determining factor.

EDIT: Jess points out that we only have around 17k miles on our car versus the 24k figure I used in my original post, so I updated the pricing chart below. Our depreciation is currently about 7.2% (or 2.4% annually!) instead of 7.7% from original price.



2004 Toyota Prius 4dr Hatchback Shown2005 Toyota Prius 4 Dr Hatchback True Market Value Pricing
Trade-In Private Party Dealer Retail
National Base Price $17,618 $19,684 $21,242
Optional Equipment $1,054 $1,181 $1,415
Front Side Airbags $160 $179 $215
Stability Control $149 $167 $200
Front and Rear Head Airbags $149 $167 $200
Power Door Locks $149 $167 $200
Keyless Ignition System $149 $167 $200
Xenon High Intensity Discharge Headlights $149 $167 $200
Fog Lights $149 $167 $200
Color Adjustment
Red
$55 $61 $66
Regional Adjustment
for Zip Code 02141
$-89 $-99 $-107
Mileage Adjustment
17,500 miles
$985 $985 $985
Condition Adjustment
Clean
$0 $0 $0
Total $19,623 $21,812 $23,601


  
Certified Used Vehicle $25,605



Price Another Vehicle


Print Window Stickers: Trade-In | Private Party | Dealer Retail







(9 comments) - (Post a new comment)


[info]enhat
2008-08-14 04:53 pm UTC (link)
I think my biggest concern (and it's not a huge one) as far as the value of the Prius goes is battery-life. How long will they last? And when they do fail, aren't they expensive to replace?

Also, if Toyota ever does increase production to the point where they can meet demand, the resale values may drop off much more significantly. Maybe that's a big if, though. If they haven't increased production by now, why would they any time soon?

Just thinkin' out loud. =]

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[info]cychan
2008-08-15 07:27 am UTC (link)
You're not alone in wondering about the battery life. I think that's probably the most common reason people are hesitant to buy a hybrid.

I think I mentioned in a previous post (or comment) that the Prius battery is under warranty for 10 years/150k miles in states with California emissions laws (CT/MA/ME/NJ/NY/OR/PA/RI/VT/WA). If you're outside those states, the warranty is 8 years/100k miles. People have driven over 200k miles without problems with the batteries, so at this point there isn't much reason to worry.

Toyota has been significantly increasing production over the last few years, but demand fluctuates much more violently (tracking gas prices). When gas prices fall, the prices of used Priuses also fall. In the medium term (2-3 years), additional supply will come significantly in the form of competitive products (especially from Honda: the new Insight, the CR-Z, and the hybrid Fit).

I suspect that in a few years you'll be correct, and the resale value of our Prius will drop off much more rapidly. The current rate of depreciation is a result of extraordinary market conditions (namely, the North American auto market being caught with its pants down) that just can't last forever. That said, in seven years our 10 year old car will still be getting almost twice the gas mileage as other 10 year old cars, so long-term resale value will likely fare significantly better than average.

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[info]cychan
2008-08-18 09:21 pm UTC (link)
From this article:

"The Prius battery is designed to last the lifetime of the vehicle and considering that the Prius is designed to be as durable as any other Toyota, and considering Toyota’s reputation, that is a pretty long time. Toyota have lab data showing the Prius battery can do 290,000km of normal driving with absolutely no degradation of the battery’s performance. To give some real life examples, there is a Taxi driver from British Columbia, Jatinder Parhar, who has done over 410,000km in his Prius Taxi and has had to do nothing to his Prius other than standard servicing. (click to read more here). Toyota has sold over 500,000 Generation II and III Prius worldwide and say they have never had to supply a battery pack for replacement due to wear and tear."

Hope that helps. From what I understand, the duty cycle of the Prius battery is so different from other batteries we use in everyday life (very shallow charge range and careful thermal management versus the deep discharge and high heat of laptop and cellphone batteries). So our everyday experience with battery durability does not carry over.

Plug-ins will be a more interesting story because their duty cycle will require a (relatively) deep discharge for the electric-only portion of a commute.

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[info]simplyjeska
2008-08-18 06:03 pm UTC (link)
wait, you're calculating based on driving 15,000 miles/year? you realize that we've only driven about 17,000 miles in 3 years, right?

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[info]cychan
2008-08-18 09:09 pm UTC (link)
Thanks for the correction! I've updated the post above.

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[info]simplyjeska
2008-08-18 09:26 pm UTC (link)
well, that doesn't taken into account that rubber part of the bumper falling off that i've taped onto the car ... so maybe a little more depreciation ;)

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[info]walther
2008-08-21 11:18 pm UTC (link)
I love reading these posts! =)

Does your $23,500 purchase price take into account the $3,150 tax credit that I assume you received? Personally, I lop off the $1,575 tax credit I received from the $25,500 purchase price of my Prius when I think about it in terms of depreciation, to reflect the true price I paid for my car. (I ignore the cost of the credit to me as a taxpayer since it is spread out over all American taxpayers, and I also ignore the time value of money costs associated with the time lag between the time of my purchase and the time at which the government actually granted me the benefit of the tax credit.)

If your true price was actually $20,350, then the value of your car has appreciated! Or did you already factor in the tax credit?

According to the pricing website that you use above, the value of my own Electric Massage has depreciated only 3.2% in the 19 months that I have owned it. Or 9.2% if I do not factor in the tax credit. I love my car.

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]cychan
2008-08-22 01:27 am UTC (link)
Thanks Kent! Unfortunately, Jess and I didn't make enough money in 2005 to owe any taxes, so we didn't qualify for the credit. That the credit is non-refundable is completely idiotic, considering poor people should face the same incentives as rich people for reducing a public bad such as pollution.

I still think the best way to deal with the pollution externality is just to raise taxes on gasoline instead of subsidizing particular technologies (hello, ethanol?). The Highway Trust Fund needs the revenue badly, but the oil companies just won't have that, will they?

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[info]walther
2008-08-22 02:24 am UTC (link)
The non-refundability of the credit IS idiotic! It pains me that you were not able to benefit from the tax credit, especially since I'm pretty sure that the value of the credits were baked into listed sale prices while the credits existed. I remember seeing an article that described how Prius MSRPs dropped with the phasing out of the tax credits. Oh well, at least you guys were still able to get a pretty sweet deal on the car in the end. I wish we could go back in time and somehow work things so that you guys could benefit from the credit. Maybe have a taxes-owing family member purchase the vehicle or something.

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